Self-Driving Cars
What people say
Industry narrative: Level 5 full autonomy is 2-3 years away. Tesla claims Full Self-Driving will be unsupervised by end of year. Waymo publicly states they are "scaling rapidly." Cruise says they will be in dozens of cities by 2025. The autonomous vehicle revolution is framed as imminent.
What's actually true
In reality, all deployed autonomous vehicles remain geofenced. Waymo operates only in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin — each launch required years of mapping and testing. Tesla FSD remains a Level 2 driver-assist system requiring constant human supervision; Tesla has missed its own autonomy deadlines every year since 2016. Cruise suspended all operations after an October 2023 incident in San Francisco. There are zero fully autonomous vehicles operating without geofencing anywhere in the world. The technology works — in constrained, well-mapped areas with backup human teleoperators. The gap between the industry narrative of "any day now" and the engineering reality of scaling to unconstrained environments remains enormous.
Key Evidence
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company_filing Waymo Safety Readiness Review
Waymo's own safety documentation outlining their operational design domain and geofenced service areas.
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regulatory NHTSA Standing General Order on ADS Crashes
Federal crash reporting data for autonomous vehicle incidents in the US, including Waymo and Tesla.
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company_filing Tesla Vehicle Safety Report (Q4 2024)
Tesla's quarterly safety data, self-reported and showing miles between accidents on Autopilot/FSD vs manual driving.
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regulatory California DMV Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2024
All AV companies operating in California must report disengagements annually.